Statistical Analysis of the Effect of Water Cut on Oil Emulsion Stability and Production Efficiency

Abstract

Petroleum emulsions represent one of the major operational challenges in oilfield production systems, particularly in fields experiencing increasing water production. The presence of water in produced fluids significantly affects emulsion stability, separation efficiency, and chemical treatment requirements.

This study aims to analyze and simulate the impact of water production rate on petroleum emulsion stability and oilfield operational efficiency. A dataset containing monthly production parameters. Including oil rate, water rate, total production rate, water cut, demulsifier injection rate, and demulsifire cost, was analyzed. Statistical analysis techniques were applied using Microsoft Excel and Python 3.11, focusing on correlation analysis and linear regression modeling to evaluate the relationships between water production and other operational variables. The results indicated a weak positive correlation between water rate and oil production rate (r = 0.29), suggesting limited direct influence of water production on oil output. However, a moderate positive correlation (r = 0.48) was observed between water rate and water cut. Indicating that increasing water production leads to higher water content in the produced fluids. The regression model further confirmed this relationship through the equation:

Water Cut = 0.287*Water Rate + 7.45. In addition, a moderately strong negative correlation (r = -0.65) was found between water rate and demulsifier injection rate, indicating that chemical treatment strategies are optimized according to emulsion behavior rather then being directly proportional to water production. Similarly, a moderate negative correlation (r = - 0.63) was identified between water cut and demulsifier cost, highlighting the role of effective chemical management in controlling operational expenses. The findings of study emphasize the importance of continuous monitoring of water production parameters and optimization of chemical treatment programs to maintain efficient oil- water separation and improve overall oilfield performance.